“Trump represents racialised populism”

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Reuters

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. File photo

Trump is speaking for a majority of Republicans, but not of America, says Neera Tanden, President, Center for American Progress.

Neera Tanden is the President of the Democratic-leaning Washington think tank Center for American Progress. She has served in Clinton and Obama administrations as an expert on U.S domestic politics and policy; and has been a close associate of Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton for two decades. Ms. Tanden spoke to The Hindu on the ongoing presidential campaign and what makes Republican frontrunner Donald Trump popular. Excerpts:

Q) What does Republican candidate Donald Trump’s popularity say about U.S. politics?

My general sense of what is happening in the U.S. is that we have a decade long challenge with rising costs and stagnant wages. That is making both parties angrier. My view is that in response to that sort of economic challenges, Democrats are more angry about inequality, Wall Street greed, the wealthy taking a bigger share, but on the right, the anger about declining economic prospects for the middle class is really focused on external groups, whether it is immigrants, which Donald Trump spoke a lot about in the beginning of this election, and then Muslims that he began speaking more and more about after the Paris attacks and San Bernardino. What is clear is the racial and religious intolerance of the Right is not supported by a majority of Americans. It is clearly a majority among Republicans, but for instance if you look at what Mr Trump said about monitoring Muslims etc, most Americans, Democrats and independents think that is utterly wrong. So Mr Trump may be speaking for a majority of the Republicans but it is only a small minority of America.

Q) Other Republican candidates also have made similar statements….

Yes, the Republicans party has moved far outside of the mainstream on many of these issues. For instance I am struck by the fact that almost every country in the world recognises climate change as a problem, that is it man-made and we need to take action about it. India..Russia, China… every country. The Republican Party is the only party in the world, in a democratic system, that does think that climate change is a problem. Similarly, the idea of monitoring a particular religious group is not only abhorrent, but against the founding principles. Our country has always given refuge to people persecuted for their religious beliefs. So it is totally wrong to do that. So most Americans think is wrong. But as I said, Mr Trump may be speaking for a majority of the Republicans, but to be fair, not all Republicans believe in what he is saying.

Q) So, if the Republicans are moving to the margins of American society, you think Mr Trump’s campaign is setting the path for an easy victory of Democrats?

There are multiple trends that are going to affect the next race. The candidates matter a lot. Then there are three big trend lines that matter – how the economy is doing, the president’s popularity and the ability of the Republicans to rebrand themselves. The president is quite popular, and compared to any Republican, he is much popular. That is important. Terrorism can affect his numbers though. Economy is doing good; macro economic numbers are much better, people feel it. The third factor is going really bad for the Republicans – their attempts to rebrand their party. Two years ago, my expectation was that they would use two years to reach out to Latinos, American women and other minority groups ..But in fact they spent the last two years trying to repudiate them. If you look at the Republican voters, 60 percent of them want the most conservative candidate than the most electable candidate.

Q) Is there a possibility that fear of terrorism will eclipse all domestic issues in the run up to the next election?

We are living in a particular moment and I am always mindful of being not overrun by it. We have a particular news cycle in the U.S -- the more you say a crazy thing, the more you are on TV. But the focus of TV is not necessarily the focus of the people. If you got a to town hall of Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders, the questions they are getting – they are Democrats – is about high costs, wages, drug use, Black Lives Matter…no one is coming to these meetings and saying that we need to round up Muslims or such things. They are not even coming and talking about terrorism that much. So I am not willing to concede that because Mr Trump says crazy things, most Americans are being carried away. In fact unlike India or our European friends, we have not been threatened so much in our own territory. In our country there is a lot protection, we have two giant oceans, immigration comes from Canada and Mexico traditionally…Terrorism is causing some anxiety, but lot of Democrats are more concerned about the free flow of guns. The truth is Mr. Trump came into this elections attacking Mexicans. I don’t think we can underestimate the schism that exists between the two parties on the question of whether to embrace or repudiate diversity. Democrats are very open to immigration and recognize the country becoming more diverse, much more accepting of that fact; the Republicans are anxious about America not being a white majority country any more. That is the big schism between the two.

Q) So the focus will remain on the domestic issues?

We will go through different cycles of security issues and anxieties, but the single issue that is driving this is…. if middle class Americans were moving up the ladder and they were more able to afford a middle class life, the Republicans would not be as anti-immigration. They were not, actually, eight years ago, when George Bush tried to pass an immigration bill. I just don’t think you would have so much violent anxiety about these issues, as we do today. So now the Democrats think immigration helps the economy, the Republicans thinks it ruins the economy.

Q) Do you think terrorism has put the Democrats and progressive forces on the back foot on the question of gun control?

I don’t think it is difficult for Democrats. Most democrats support these issues by a wide margin. The problem in this issue, is that for Republicans and the people who support gun rights – that is a minority -- but it is like, it is their number one issue. People who support common sense gun legislations, that would be like 80 percent of Americans, but it is like, they have ten issues on top of it. It is a political economy problem.

Q) How do you see the spurt in gun sales post-Paris and San Bernardino? Mr Trump and other Republicans encourage people to boy more guns.

That happens every time there is a security anxiety. Democrats look at the plethora of guns and say this constitute a lack of safety. Republicans look at the plethora of guns and say, this is contributing to safety. Their mind says that if everyone has a gun, you are equal to the criminal or the terrorist; Democrats believe that if everyone has a gun, you are much more likely to get killed. Most people in the world think like Democrats do. Australia had a massive gun violence problem, they banned guns and now nobody dies from guns there.

I think, what Mr Trump represents is racialised populism, which is an issue for democracies around the world..I was recently in France. For me Jean-Marie Le Pen and Trump are the same. On economic issues, they are populist. Mr Trump supports social security and medicare, He disagrees with a lot of Republicans who want to undermine these programmes, Le Pen is a big believer in the welfare state. Her populism and his populism are both racialised – both don’t like immigrants, and Muslims. Now, what happened in France? She is a majority of conservatives, in a multi party parliamentary system, others voted to keep her out of power. Mr Trump may well be the Republican nominee, but may be the moderate Republicans may vote for Hillary..I don’t know. A majority of a minority is not a majority of the country.

Q) Do you think if Trump is the candidate, it will be easier for Democrats to win?

Yes. I don’t think it is going to be a 20-point win or something. I think he may well bring people, who have not voted before, into the political process. But he may also bring into political process that will oppose him. He’s a polarising figure. People like working class folks who may not have voted in previous elections may come to vote for him, but he may also bring for instance people of colour to vote against him.

Q) But all candidates in the fray, Republican and Democrats, appear to agree on “Wall Street greed,” middle class troubles etc..Is there s a broad consensus on these issues?

I agree, there is a broad consensus that there is a problem. But there are huge differences on what to do about it. If you look at the policy prescriptions of the Republican Party, all of them will make the situation worse. They want to undo regulations, they want to make the tax code more skewed towards the wealthy, they all talk about tax policies that are a massive give away to the rich. But they say…their rhetoric. There is convergence on the rhetoric on the problem. There is a huge differential between the Republican Party’s donor base and the problem. In fairness, Mr Trump has more leeway in dealing with what to do with Wall Street. He is capitalizing on anger about plutocrats controlling the political process. He criticies all these other guys for taking donations from rich people and holds himself separate by saying that I don’t take money from them. I think there is power there. You can see why people like that. In every election cycle, Republicans feel this problem - Americans feel that the country is becoming more unequal, all the money goes to rich people, they are working harder, the wealthier amass all the wealth which is all true. 98 percent of the income has gone to the top one percent, wages have been stagnant for some years and in fact median wages in fact came down between 2005 and 2015. We Democrats have a problem – that we had power and we were not able to shape that course. Our answers have not been sufficient to the problem. But the problem with the Republican Party is that their donor base requires them to support policies that make things worse. And you see that this election cycle as well. In this election cycle they have become more nuanced, they have recognised that there is a problem with the Wall Street, but still they put forward a tax plan that is bigger giveaway to the rich. If the Republicans got to the point where they could ignore their donors and actually come with ideas that would help the middle class, they will have real opportunities.

Q) But all the Republican candidates think wages are high in the U.S…

Yes! It is interesting. We have this weird thing in the U.S. Corporate profits are at record highs, profitability of firm is high, so you can’t argue about American competitiveness. Our companies are doing very well. But wages are really stagnant. It is funny how you see it. If you are a company CEO, you see wages as a cost on your balance sheet – which is reasonable and I get that. But for the worker that is his income, that he needs more. And that is the challenge for the Republican party, because most people think the party is for the rich because that is their ‘go to’ place. Our companies are all focused on cost saving, but then we have a serious demand problem in the country. But everything that you can do about wages in the country – better equality of education, increased unions, all of these things..everything that you can do about, Republicans are opposed to it. They are in a quandary.